Predictions-Part Two or Why Donald Trump Could Win and the Reason He Won’t

When last we left our heroes, Secretary Clinton had 238 Electoral Votes and Mr. Trump had 220.  Despite the close race, the 4 remaining states (Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan) are uphill battles for Donald Trump.  I think he ends up losing each one and it comes down the third factor that I mentioned as critical to this election:  suburban white women.  And by that I mean mostly Republican and Independent suburban white women.  I honestly believe this is the group still most conflicted by the choice they have to make.  While they may not like Clinton and may actually agree with many things Trump says, I think they are going to walk into that voting booth and, when looking at the choice in front of them, are going to think two things.  The first is that they simply do not want Donald Trump to represent them and their nation.  The second is that they have a legitimate opportunity to elect the first female President and what that means, not only to themselves but to their mothers and their daughters.

Ironically, Trump might have had another path to victory that wouldn’t have to rely on that voting bloc but he flushed it away almost immediately.  Fairly or not, Latin American voters were never going to support him and are likely to turn out in big numbers to vote against him.  He will be fortunate to hold Arizona and I think Colorado, Nevada and (yes, even) Florida are going to be lost because Trump is perceived, fairly or not, to be biased against Mexicans.

Of course I could be wrong.  I do think Florida and North Carolina are going to come down to the wire and maybe Trump pulls them out.  Maybe there is another large state that is so close that it triggers a recount.  Oh no…not 2000 again.  Whatever the outcome,  I can hardly imagine a worse scenario than for this election to be hanging in the balance for weeks to come.  But, trust me, both sides have a team of lawyers ready to challenge any result that is close or just doesn’t look right.  Let’s just hope that whoever wins does so decisively enough that we avoid a mess like that.

So….my final Electoral Vote prediction is Hillary Clinton wins 317,  Donald Trump wins 220 and someone else wins 1.  As of this moment, there is a Democrat Elector in the state of Washington who says he is not going to vote for Hillary Clinton.  Seriously.  Google it!

In the popular vote,  I am going to say Clinton 47%, Trump 45%, Johnson 5%, Stein 2% and all others adding up to 1%.

Other predictions:

  1. Reporters will be claiming “record turnout” by late morning tomorrow “all over the country” and “long lines.”  It won’t be true.  Fewer people will turn out than in 2012.
  2. At some point during the day, Republicans somewhere will claim that there has been “massive voter fraud.”
  3. At some point during the day, Democrats somewhere will claim that there has been “voter intimidation.”
  4. At some point somewhere tomorrow, there will actually be a physical altercation (that’s a fight) between Trump and Clinton supporters outside of a polling place.  Sad but that’s my guess.
  5. Long lines in at least 2 states late into the evening will lead judges in those states to require the polls remain open at least an hour later.
  6. I will vote.
  7. I will be wrong about something.

I am considering “live blogging” tomorrow night as the returns come in but I’m not sure.  I will be doing a postmortem on the election sometime over the next few days.  And there will be more analysis in the weeks to come as we learn more about who voted for who and why.  Thanks for reading along and, as always, if you liked it, tell your friends.  Have a great day!

 

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